The political makeup of the Minnesota legislature hinges on three races, including one in the House and two in the Senate.
SAINT PAUL, Minn. — Three special elections in the coming months will determine the balance of power in both the Minnesota House and Senate for the 2026 legislative session, following the deaths of two beloved members and the pending resignation of another.
After the assassination of House Speaker Emerita Melissa Hortman, Gov. Tim Walz scheduled a special election for September to fill the vacancy in her Brooklyn Park district. That race will determine whether the House remains a 67-67 tie, or if Republicans take a true majority in the chamber, although the district is considered safely Democratic and unlikely to change hands. Hortman had won her previous four elections by at least 20 percentage points.
Meanwhile, in the Senate, the DFL held a narrow 34-33 majority in the 2025 legislative session, but there are two special elections on the horizon to decide party control. In one of those races, voters will cast ballots to fill the seat of Republican Sen. Bruce Anderson of Buffalo, who died unexpectedly on Monday at the age of 75, while the other special election will be held to replace DFL Sen. Nicole Mitchell of Woodbury. After her felony conviction in a burglary case, Mitchell has promised to resign by Aug. 4.
Gov. Walz has not scheduled either of the Senate special elections yet. While Anderson and Mitchell both won their districts by double digits in the last elections, the Mitchell seat in Woodbury carries some intrigue because of the circumstances around her legal issues. After her arrest in April 2024, Mitchell refused to resign before her case was resolved, and Senate DFL colleagues resisted voting to expel Mitchell until due process had played out.
Amy Koch, a Republican strategist and former GOP Senate Majority Leader, acknowledged that the East Metro suburbs around Woodbury have become bluer in recent years. However, she said the high-profile nature of the Mitchell case could change the equation in a special election, which typically involves lower turnout than a general election.
“Senator Nicole Mitchell is still going to be on that ballot. This has been all over the news, the national news, prominently featured with her trial, and frankly, there’s going to be a political component to, ‘why is she still there after a year and a half?’” Koch said. “Republicans need to field a candidate who fits the district, and that’s been an issue for Republicans. It’s not a race to be the most conservative here; it’s who can fit a suburban, moderate district.”
It’s not clear yet which Republicans will run for Mitchell’s seat.
“None have yet announced, to my knowledge, so it’s a little premature for me to mention any names,” Minnesota GOP Chair Alex Plechash said. “But in one case in particular, I know that candidate is very strong, has run before, knows how to run a race, is pretty well known, very energetic, and there’s a lot of people behind this candidate in getting the vote out.”
Although Republicans are likely to focus on Mitchell’s conduct and the Senate DFL’s role in keeping her in the chamber, Democrats hold a demographic advantage in that portion of the East Metro and are sure to draw attention to the policies of President Trump.
Two current DFL House members, Rep. Amanda Hemmingsen-Jaeger and Rep. Ethan Cha, are both planning to run for Mitchell’s Senate seat after she resigns.
“We’ll push forward and make sure whichever candidate we have emerge will have our full backing. We’re going to door-knock relentlessly in that district; we’re going to go door-to-door, listen to voters, learn their perspective,” Minnesota DFL Chair Richard Carlbom said. “Definitely, the East Metro has been trending more Democratic over the last several election cycles and I think in the second Trump presidency, it’s going to continue to favor Democrats.”
Jeff Hayden, a Democratic strategist and former DFL lawmaker, agreed that the party will have an advantage in that Senate district but also expects Republicans to make an issue of Mitchell’s conduct.
“I think everybody wanted to see due process. It was done, and now she’s going to leave,” Hayden said. “The other two seats, I don’t think, have that level of controversy.”
Adding in the upcoming trio of races, the legislature will finish 2025 with at least six special elections, the most in one year since 1994. (With several state lawmakers currently running for other political offices, there could be even more special elections by the end of the calendar year.)
The six vacancies so far this year have all been created by tragic or unfortunate circumstances. Three of them involved deaths: Sen. Kari Dziedzic, Sen. Anderson and Rep. Hortman. Two others involved legal troubles: Sen. Mitchell and the resignation of GOP Sen. Justin Eichorn after federal charges on attempted coercion and enticement of a minor. The sixth vacancy was connected to the residency challenge that invalidated DFL House candidate Curtis Johnson’s victory in the 2024 elections and led to a weeks-long power struggle in the chamber.
